The San Francisco Chronicle has a lengthy story on what many of us have already known for quite a while. The real estate industry has long subscribed to the notion that everyone wants to be with a “winner” and, thus, reporting only the “sunny side up” that they thought everyone wanted to hear. Today they say:
“… executives at the helms of the city’s biggest brokerages say they’re preparing for an unpleasant and unprofitable 2009, although it may turn out to be the best year that buyers have seen in more than a decade.”
I must say that this is true. There are some really good homes in good locations at prices not seen in quite some time. (If you would like to see available homes for sale, click here.)
The article goes on to say:
“San Francisco had managed to fool itself through most of 2008 into thinking that it wasn’t going to suffer the same sort of issues that have hurt other places in the state,” said Christopher Thornberg, an economist with the consulting firm Beacon Economics. “The last four or five months of the year, San Francisco has seen price declines that have been quite prominent. You can’t have prices fall as much as they have across the bay without some impact on San Francisco itself.”
…
Thornberg, the economist, said hitting bottom is the best thing that could happen to San Francisco’s real estate market next year. “There’s an economic recession going on right now, and it’s a pretty nasty one,” he said. “The best that we can hope for in 2009 is to find the bottom.”
That might sound odd to some of you readers, but if we find the bottom–the actual bottom–then we have hopes for going in a more positive direction.
Charles Moore, CEO of McGuire Real Estate, seems to be the most guarded of those featured in the article:
Moore said he’s taking stock and preparing for the long haul. “I don’t think we’ve even seen the beginning of this yet,” he said.
He said he is running his business under the assumption that the down market will continue for at least two more years. His top piece of advice to his agents? Don’t take overpriced listings.
“I’m thinking about surviving these turbulent times,” Moore said. “I’m not thinking about thriving any more. It’s a new mind-set.”
And it’s a glum outlook from a leader in an industry usually known for its relentless optimism. The goal isn’t to be depressing, just realistic, Moore said.
“If you are the sole counselor to your client, you had better talk credibly, and you had better tell the real story,” he said. “It may be a depressing story, but it’s your job to tell it.”
It is never easy to tell someone that their home is not worth what they think it is, especially after they have labored over it and loved it for years. This business is not for the timid or the faint of heart. For the time being, it is not going to get any easier either.
That said, you may want to forget about all this and consult the event calendar for fun things to do. 🙂
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.